I think you're on to my problem. I'm still getting the yellow exclamation point saying my driver is unsigned (although it also says it's working) but in this case i'm thinking AVRdude is not picking up the programmer. Are you using windows 7 by chance? It looks easy enough in XP or Vista as you pointed out but i'm finding lots of problems getting this to work on W7. I hope I don't have to partition an XP just to bootload a stinkin arduino!
Cheers!
Brian