Russia gets hit by meteor and watch a flyby live

what i can't understand is if someone like nasa or similar had seen this metereo approcing, or we are completely unaware of some dangerus-but-not-too-big meter

lesto:
what i can't understand is if someone like nasa or similar had seen this metereo approcing, or we are completely unaware of some dangerus-but-not-too-big meter

The latter is true. Spotting such 'small' objects at distance is often more a matter of luck then anything else.

Lefty

I read the blast was estimated at 500 kt, at an altitude of 10-15 miles. That's huge! I'm surprised it didn't do more damage. Good thing it wasn't closer in.

The angle of entry had a lot to do with it as it passed through the atmosphere for much longer then if it was falling at a more vertical angle where it might well have reached ground before breaking up.

Lefty

more are coming

TrailerTrash:
more are coming

Always have been coming and always will be coming, it's just that human's clock rate is just not tuned to the universe's clock rate.

Lefty

lesto:
what i can't understand is if someone like nasa or similar had seen this metereo approcing, or we are completely unaware of some dangerus-but-not-too-big meter

How wide is the sky and beyond, out past the Moon orbit? How small is a 1km rock at 500,000km? Now how small is a less than 20m rock?
At relative speeds of asteroid and Earth you need to find the asteroid(s) and determine if/where any might hit the sky in enough time to give meaningful warning, more than just "Everybody duck!" which really means get your cameras out.

A 17m rock didn't get noticed until 32 seconds(?) before it exploded. Then it got noticed. That was the warning but who knew what to do? Maybe people knowing more what they see and take action to get under cover is sooner possible? That rock could have killed most everyone in the open for many km around just from the blast had it come much lower.

I think of these rocks and the ones going by as missed resources. I won't say they'd be used wisely (more likely be used to take war to a new level) but there they are.

GoForSmoke:

lesto:
what i can't understand is if someone like nasa or similar had seen this metereo approcing, or we are completely unaware of some dangerus-but-not-too-big meter

How wide is the sky and beyond, out past the Moon orbit? How small is a 1km rock at 500,000km? Now how small is a less than 20m rock?
At relative speeds of asteroid and Earth you need to find the asteroid(s) and determine if/where any might hit the sky in enough time to give meaningful warning, more than just "Everybody duck!" which really means get your cameras out.

A 17m rock didn't get noticed until 32 seconds(?) before it exploded. Then it got noticed. That was the warning but who knew what to do? Maybe people knowing more what they see and take action to get under cover is sooner possible? That rock could have killed most everyone in the open for many km around just from the blast had it come much lower.

I think of these rocks and the ones going by as missed resources. I won't say they'd be used wisely (more likely be used to take war to a new level) but there they are.

wrong. the russian meteor was noticed and shot at by aliens protecting us. goto youtube and look it up

I'll file that with "chem-trails"TM and how real contrails don't last... not since WWII anyway.

GoForSmoke:

lesto:
what i can't understand is if someone like nasa or similar had seen this metereo approcing, or we are completely unaware of some dangerus-but-not-too-big meter

How wide is the sky and beyond, out past the Moon orbit? How small is a 1km rock at 500,000km? Now how small is a less than 20m rock?
At relative speeds of asteroid and Earth you need to find the asteroid(s) and determine if/where any might hit the sky in enough time to give meaningful warning, more than just "Everybody duck!" which really means get your cameras out.

A 17m rock didn't get noticed until 32 seconds(?) before it exploded. Then it got noticed. That was the warning but who knew what to do? Maybe people knowing more what they see and take action to get under cover is sooner possible? That rock could have killed most everyone in the open for many km around just from the blast had it come much lower.

I think of these rocks and the ones going by as missed resources. I won't say they'd be used wisely (more likely be used to take war to a new level) but there they are.

i can understand Radar in space will not work, but maybe you can do something similar with light (see lidar)...
An easyer way should be something like automatic photo + redshift, or triangulation, analysis..
I've seen a "automatic pilot" for spaceship that autocorrect inertial measurement "simply" taking photo of the know star and calculating the error... like sailor :slight_smile:
that can be used to track and identify any object into certain range

i can understand Radar in space will not work,

Radar works just fine from earth to space. However the size of the return signature is related to both the distance and size of the object, so it's a sensitivity issue. The most sensitive method of detected far off and small space objects is photographs taken over multiple days looking at an identical part of space. Any object that has 'moved' relative to the background starts will appear as a streak and is easily to identify, track, and predict it's path thereafter. However there is a lot of space to look at and a finite number of picture takers so smaller objects are always subject to arriving without notice.

Lefty

retrolefty:

i can understand Radar in space will not work,

Radar works just fine from earth to space.

sorry, you are right, i get confused with Sonar :slight_smile:

retrolefty:
However the size of the return signature is related to both the distance and size of the object, so it's a sensitivity issue. The most sensitive method of detected far off and small space objects is photographs taken over multiple days looking at an identical part of space. Any object that has 'moved' relative to the background starts will appear as a streak and is easily to identify, track, and predict it's path thereafter. However there is a lot of space to look at and a finite number of picture takers so smaller objects are always subject to arriving without notice.
Lefty

ok, so it is similar to my precedent idea. It is just harder than i through :smiley:

yous are all wrong. nasa can track a wrench floating around. they kept this whole thing secret so to not create havoc in the streets!

Plus the sound of the meteor blast over Russia was detected from as far away as Antarctica by the far-flung system of detectors that make up the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty network. http://oak.ctx.ly/r/2h1l sorry bout the giant pic

Radar is inverse square including the return, inverse-square of -less-. That limits the degrees a radar may scan very far, the size of the sky may be thought in terms of scan circles. The sky is much bigger than it looks, and it looks awful big.

TT:
They track 1,000's of junk objects in orbit. It's easier to do when you have satellites in place and you're only scanning local space. It's easier when you have decades to build the map.

The Vienna, Austria-based Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) runs the International Monitoring System made up of infrasound stations. Infrasound is low frequency sound with a range of less than 10 Hertz. Humans cannot hear the low frequency waves that were emitted by the meteor blast over Russia on Friday (Feb. 15), but they were recorded by the CTBTO’s network of sensors as they travelled across continents.

Gee, they caught it late. Not until the blast. Meanwhile phone and dash cams were already on the big glowing thundering thing blazing across the sky, and it ain't the Second Coming!

And if the asteroids and meteors don't get us...

I'm so depressed. All the diodes on my left side hurt.

A much larger asteroid trundled past between the Earth and the geostationary satellites on the same day. Was that complete coincidence or did they come from the same direction?

Apparently there is a fairly large one that currently has a 1% chance of a hit in 2048.

The odds of a hit in a populated area are low, but I doubt NASA can give strike positions accurate enough to be really meaningful.
Apart from the difficulty of accurately calculating trajectory once the thing enters the atmosphere surely there must be a large random factor ?

Maybe they could say an asteroid will hit the East coast of USA and the blast might be 2M tonnes, but is that helpful?

It seems there may be loads of entire planets cannon balling through space but again the chances of getting hit are slim.

radman:
It seems there may be loads of entire planets cannon balling through space but again the chances of getting hit are slim.

patriot like missile(It is designed to detect (heat), target and then hit an incoming missile that may be no more than 3 to 6 meters long and is typically flying at three to five times the speed of sound)? If they can hit n ICBM i thing they can hit a meteorite. Also they will hit when in the atmosphere, so with a bit of luck will help the reentry compression destructive force.

Was that complete coincidence or did they come from the same direction?

Complete coincidence, different directions (AFAIK)

Apparently there is a fairly large one that currently has a 1% chance of a hit in 2048.

Do you have a link ?
Have you ever looked up the chance that an average person is involved in a deadly accident the coming 35 years?

The odds of a hit in a populated area are low, but I doubt NASA can give strike positions accurate enough to be really meaningful.

IIRC only 5% of the land is populated. so chances are indeed low (but you never know)

To get a feeling of the distances/timing about strike positions some simple (rounded) math.

The earth rotates around the sun.
Distance 150.000.000 km.
So the orbit is 1.000.000.000 km (2PIdistance)
That distance is done in a year = 365 x 24 x 60 x 60 seconds = 31.536.000 seconds

So the earth moves about 31.7 km/sec in its orbit. (mind you that is ~3x faster than it rotates at the equator. ~93x speed of sound)
The earth has a diameter of ~13000 km
That means after ~7 minutes the earth is moved one earth diameter in its orbit.

So the difference between a full hit and a full miss is about 3.5 minutes.

That means you need to have the trajectory exact up to that order of magnitude to know for sure.

suppose you detect a big stone flying 5000 km per hour +- 0.1% (so accurate on 5 km per hour, that's pretty accurate)
suppose the stone is heading earth and it is detected while it has the same distance as the moon 385.000 km (pretty close)

Then it will take between ~4615 and ~4625 minutes before it reaches earth.
the difference of 10 minutes is enough to move the earth 1.5 earth diameter
==> so even a 0.1% speed accuracy is not enough to be sure about the hit when detected at moon distance.

Maybe they could say an asteroid will hit the East coast of USA and the blast might be 2M tonnes, but is that helpful?

Depends on when they can tell, besides evacuating the target area (which might be impossible) one could at least evacuate the coast of Europe as there might be a tsunami (squared)

It seems there may be loads of entire planets cannon balling through space but again the chances of getting hit are slim.

But they have an eternity to do so...

If they can hit n ICBM i thing they can hit a meteorite.

Hitting the meteorite is not the problem, the problem is that it will react quite differently based upon its composition.
Some meteorites are loose connected pebbles while others are almost compact stone/metal and many are something in between.
So the patriot will definitely "interact" differently (to say the least)

And imagine what the debris can do when shot to pieces, one medium meteor hit causes another kind of damage than a million (relative) small ones.