I'm interested to hear the answer to this too, as I am trying something similar on mac.
Anyway, to me it looks like AVRdude worked. the probelm is you need more command lines-- the one you have just sets the fuses. You need also to unlock it the first time around, and then another line to upload and burn the hex file.. etc etc.
Wolf Paulus has a really excellent page on this....http://wolfpaulus.com/journal/embedded/arduino2.html
He shows three steps, as does the original Arduino burn.command that used ot use UISP to do the same thing.
Keep the info coming, it is really useful.