Nick,
I tried using -B250:
avrdude -p m328p -c avrispmkii -P usb -B250 -F
avrdude: stk500v2_command(): command failed
avrdude: stk500v2_program_enable(): bad AVRISPmkII connection status: Unknown status 0x00
avrdude: initialization failed, rc=-1
avrdude: AVR device initialized and ready to accept instructions
avrdude: Device signature = 0x000000
avrdude: Yikes! Invalid device signature.
avrdude: Expected signature for ATMEGA328P is 1E 95 0F
And regarding the high fuse question, I'm pretty sure. All I did was read in the fuse bits from the fresh chip and change the low bit by hand in AVR Studio. Though, I always could be mistaken.
@dc42 - I don't think CKOUT is outputting anything (see attached screenshot)