Was there any solution to this one?
I'm getting the same basic thing on a 328P; I can burn the bootloader and it'll upload a sketch once. After that - no dice, I have to re-burn the same bootloader and then upload a sketch. Kinda sucky, since I'm not interested in even having a bootloader on the chip in the first place, but it was the only way it would upload.
I'm pretty sure it's something obvious. I'm just not seeing it.