Actually it looks like your programmer is responding, since avrdude is giving the warning to update your USBasp firmware. I get similar messages when the AVR is set to a lower clock speed like internal 1MHz or 128KHz and your USBasp programmer can't slow down for this.
Do you remember what fuse settings you used last?
What kind of USBasp programmer do you have?
There may be a jumper option to use a slow sck clock or you may be able to upgrade the firmware so you can use an avrdude option -B to slow it down.