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Topic: "Gangnam Style" views periodic pattern (Read 1 time) previous topic - next topic

Mad physicist

Jul 07, 2013, 03:54 am Last Edit: Jul 07, 2013, 05:27 pm by Mad physicist Reason: 1
Some time ago, Youtube began to offer a more detailed analysis of video views, including graphs of views per day. I just came across the all-time most viewed video, i.e. Psy's Gangnam style, and something on this graph (attached) struck me : a neat periodic pattern emerges among some other things (the increase around new year's day due to "one billion views" publicity, the recent surge (?), and the smooth overall curve).

The video was posted of 15th of July 2012 and the graph is said to account for views until 4th of July 2013. It therefore spans 354 days. The graph is also 475 pixels wide. So each pixel day represents approximately 1.34 days pixels. Now the mean wavelength of these oscillations is rougly 9.5 ± 0.5 pixels (almost all peaks are spaced by 9 or 10). This was measured on graph, i didn't bothered running a mathematica script but that seems a fair approximation. This gives us 12.75 ± 0.67 days 6.70± 0.37 days.

I checked his video release dates (as it seems to happen after the initial "viral spread" making him famous). It sometimes fits, but that not as periodic by a long shot, so if that's linked (and it seems likely), it only partly explains the periodicity. Perhaps it's a real, meaningful sociological phenomenon ; or perhaps it's just a Youtube glitch (too many views to process so it's released in bunches?). I don't have the slightest idea to be frank. Someone ? People watch it on Sundays.

edit: fixed.




Nick Gammon

One of my own videos seems to have similar oscillations, I'm not sure it means anything:


http://www.gammon.com.au/electronics

Mad physicist

#2
Jul 07, 2013, 04:31 am Last Edit: Jul 07, 2013, 04:45 am by Mad physicist Reason: 1
But these look more like random noise at this scale, do you see something more apparent when you zoom into your video stats ?

Nick Gammon

How do you zoom in?

I got this for one year's worth:


http://www.gammon.com.au/electronics

GoForSmoke


It therefore spans 354 days.
The graph is also 475 pixels wide.
So each pixel represents approximately 1.34 days.


You might want to recalculate that.

days per pixel = 354 days/475 pixels = .726 days/pixel; 17.4 hours.

What that does to trends I dunno, maybe something new happens to match up.

I find it harder to express logic in English than in Code.
Sometimes an example says more than many times as many words.

Coding Badly

What that does to trends I dunno, maybe something new happens to match up.


We call it "the weekend".   :D

Mad physicist


cjdelphi

The Oscillations might be down to the Northern / Southern hemisphere.

At peak, the Northern Hemisphere are watching, as they go to bed, it becomes morning for Australia, or visa versa, simply people watching the video's from different time zones...

Could that be it? (eg, 9am regardless where you live, you wont watch it, by 12pm-1pm you might and certainly come 6pm, when most would watch) now repeat again across all the time zones,
but that large spike ? at the end, is that a bug?

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