I do not. The tutorial says that you can use the internal clock...
Be sure to select "ATmega328 on a breadboard (8 MHz internal clock)" when burning the bootloader. (If you select the wrong item and configure the microcontroller to use an external clock, it won't work unless you connect one.)
How do you tell if a wire is "too long" or "too short"?
The auto reset seems like a likely culprit, how do I disable it?
The Duemilanove contains a trace that can be cut to disable the auto-reset. The pads on either side of the trace can be soldered together to re-enable it. It's labeled "RESET-EN".
You may also be able to disable the auto-reset by connecting a 110 ohm resistor from 5V to the reset line; see this forum thread for details. Is that it?
And what commands, and where would I look to find them?
set PATH=%PATH%;C:\Arduino\arduino-0022\hardware\tools\avr\utils\binset PATH=%PATH%;C:\Arduino\arduino-0022\hardware\tools\avr\binset PATH=%PATH%;C:\arduino\arduino-0022\hardware\tools\avr\etc
C:\Arduino\arduino-0022\hardware/tools/avr/bin/avrdude -CC:\Arduino\arduino-0022\hardware/tools/avr/etc/avrdude.conf -v -v -v -v -patmega328p -carduino -P\\.\COM14 -b115200 -D -Uflash:w:C:\Users\USER~1.001\AppData\Local\Temp\build4128319007689436592.tmp\sketch_aug23a.cpp.hex:i
avrdude -v -v -v -v -patmega328p -cSTK500 -P\\.\COM14 -b19200
tried the resistor and everything, and am now down to one error, not two. avrdude: stk500_getsync(): not in sync: resp=0x15