I only want that the Arduino worked right after the download.
i installed "1.6.21" and "1.6.20" versions - no effect
now I have in addition replaced "avrdude.conf" in\arduino-1.8.6\hardware\tools\avr\etc
and now good work
solution option
i replaced avrdude.exe in \arduino-1.8.6\hardware\tools\avr\bin\
and
avrdude.conf" in\arduino-1.8.6\hardware\tools\avr\etc
on original files on avrdude sites
(avrdude arduino maybe not original and I do not know where they got them from )