Go Down

Topic: Did he really say that? (Read 4454 times) previous topic - next topic

Robin2

#30
Jun 25, 2020, 01:31 pm Last Edit: Jun 25, 2020, 01:32 pm by Robin2
They say it takes 3 to 5 days.
It seems to be the same in the UK and IMHO this type of testing is rubbish. If you get a "clear" result it just means you were free of the disease when the test was taken. You could have contracted it after leaving the test site and not be "clear" when the results come back.

To my mind all this talk of "do more tests" is just hype and a waste of money. I guess it does help with what to write on the death certificate.

...R
Two or three hours spent thinking and reading documentation solves most programming problems.

ardly

It seems to be the same in the UK and IMHO this type of testing is rubbish. If you get a "clear" result it just means you were free of the disease when the test was taken. You could have contracted it after leaving the test site and not be "clear" when the results come back.

To my mind all this talk of "do more tests" is just hype and a waste of money. I guess it does help with what to write on the death certificate.

...R
If somebody tests positive you can isolate them preventing that person infecting several others. It is one of the most effective ways of controlling any infectious disease.

Yes some people will slip the net but the more testing and isolating you do the better the grip you have, if you don't test then everybody needs to isolate (lockdown) or the disease goes rampant. Don't forget that people will test positive, and be infectious, even though they think that they are well.

If you look at UK figures where testing is quite poor then around 40k people have died with positive Coronavirus tests. However the excess deaths over the same time period are around 60k.

Yes if you don't test then it is harder to pin the death on the virus but the excess death figures will eventually need to be explained and they do allow comparisons to be made between countries. Regardless of how a country fiddles its testing numbers a dead person is a dead person and it it very hard to explain away sudden large spikes.

The testing for somebody being currently infected is also important because it gives an indication of how rapidly the disease is spreading through the population and so lets you see the R number.

The antibody tests, to show how many people have had the disease, are useful because they show if you are achieving herd immunity. For herd immunity you need at least 60% of the population to have had the disease, and really you want 90%+.

In the UK they have been doing random antibody tests to try to assess herd immunity.
The last figure I saw was that they estimated that only 3.3M people out of a population of 67M had been infected. That is roughly 5% but there have been 60k deaths. Things are not that simple but very crudely using those figures you might expect 600k deaths and you would still have infected only 50% of the population and not achieved herd immunity to stop the spread. Hence lockdown, social distancing, masks and a scramble to get treatments and vaccines.

Coming out of lockdown is not because the virus has gone away, it is a political decision to trade off deaths against financial losses. The virus seems to like cold conditions hence the big outbreaks in meat packing plants in the USA, Germany and the UK. If the virus is still widespread come the winter there could be a further large outbreak.


As for the CV test first they stick the swab down your throat to tickle your tonsils then they stick the same swab, coated in tonsil juice, way up your nose till they tickle your brain.




"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored" - Aldous Huxley

larryd

No technical PMs.
If you are asked a question, please respond with an answer.
If you are asked for more information, please supply it.
If you need clarification, ask for help.

GoForSmoke

Quote
The antibody tests, to show how many people have had the disease, are useful because they show if you are achieving herd immunity. For herd immunity you need at least 60% of the population to have had the disease, and really you want 90%+.
Except that if you get it, you can get it again and how long before you can is not known. I get booster shots for Tetanus, the immunity wears off after about 5 years. We have people who have COVID-19 twice in months.

I'm glad we have testing. In 1666 England the Black Death test was the "ring around the rosie" and the hydrochloroquine of the day was Posey petals. The big break came when London mostly burned down and in end only people who kept their distance survived.

You can kvetch about the virus all you want but non-contact is the best weapon you have to avoid it.

Life's a bitch when the Darwin Award seekers take many down with them. But... sing it,

Go to the Rally and get Trump Fever, don't wear a mask like a lib-er-al.
On your way home, spread Trump Fever and take hydro-chloro-queen!

If it traces to a Trump Rally, that makes it Trump Fever.
If it traces to partisan no masks, handshakes and hugs while yelling "HOAX!"... it's Trump Fever.
Anywhere MORONS gather to ape the Orangutang in Chief, it's TRUMP FEVER.

Faking numbers while people die... THE new low. We haven't hit bottom yet so question is what's next?
1) http://gammon.com.au/blink  <-- tasking Arduino 1-2-3
2) http://gammon.com.au/serial <-- techniques howto
3) http://gammon.com.au/interrupts
Your sketch can sense ongoing process events in time.
Your sketch can make events to control it over time.

Robin2

If somebody tests positive you can isolate them preventing that person infecting several others. It is one of the most effective ways of controlling any infectious disease.
That is undoubtedly true. But the converse is not true.

For example testing a careworker who needs to be in contact with vulnerable people provides no protection for the vulnerable people unless the test result is available immediately.

Frankly I suspect that all the people that are vulnerable to dying from this disease will eventually die from it - the only question is when. I know that is unfortunate - but that's nature red-in-tooth-and-claw. In the meantime everyone else is paying an enormous price so Governments can give the illusion that they are in control. It seems to be only the Swedish Government that had the courage to deal with the problem rationally.

...R
Two or three hours spent thinking and reading documentation solves most programming problems.

Coding Badly

To my mind all this talk of "do more tests" is just hype and a waste of money.
Testing allows government and hospital officials to be able to predict if / when the health care system will be overwhelmed so we can avoid things like this.  It also allows long term planning such as making decisions about when to allow restaurants to open.

Testing allows contact tracing resources to be used most effectively.

Testing allows individuals to make an informed decision if they believe they've been exposed.  @ChrisTenone's son is a good example: Infected?  No.  Can go back to work without risking a whole lot of other people.

Quote
For example testing a careworker who needs to be in contact with vulnerable people provides no protection for the vulnerable people unless the test result is available immediately.
Exactly why we need a faster turnaround.  Sadly the person who needs it the least has access to such technology.  I wonder if that's a result of profound mental illness (narcissism).


GoForSmoke

For example testing a careworker who needs to be in contact with vulnerable people provides no protection for the vulnerable people unless the test result is available immediately.
That's all-or-nothing thinking. If a careworker does test positive and gets quarantined then that careworker will not be affecting MORE people.

But hey, since you can have it and pass it before symptoms... all-or-nothing says there should be NO careworkers.

Quote
Frankly I suspect that all the people that are vulnerable to dying from this disease will eventually die from it - the only question is when. I know that is unfortunate - but that's nature red-in-tooth-and-claw. In the meantime everyone else is paying an enormous price so Governments can give the illusion that they are in control. It seems to be only the Swedish Government that had the courage to deal with the problem rationally.

...R
People vulnerable to COVID have died of other causes already. Cancer didn't stop killing people in March.

I dunno about the illusion of control since AFAIC our Idiot has been pushing for less control since February.

What's NOT an illusion is the number of hospitals either coping or not. If you still have a healthcare system, the spread is under some degree of control. I expect that new examples of what happens when it's lost in the US south especially Arizona, Texas, Florida and California.

We have a mini-surge here where the trend was going down steadily. We also have young idiots who haven't lost their invulnerable belief and our political nutcases still calling this a hoax. We also have people who think that spreading this will "kill more of THEM than US".

Distance and cleaning is my best chance until meds and/or a vaccine is developed. And about vaccines, the first polio vaccine wasn't so good but better than 'nuthin'. My sister born in 1945 told me about people here and there catching it like some evil lottery and then the first vaccine was a risk itself before the one we have now came out.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-what-happened-in-sweden-and-you-cant-compare-it-to-u-s#Can-Swedens-approach-work-in-the-U.S.?

They "only" stand to lose a fraction of a percent of the population to reach that 70% where "herd immunity" will do what they didn't. And if herd immunity doesn't last as long as it takes to infect the herd then what?

What do you do when the people who manage an industry, the older ones with enough experience to do the jobs are enough of them gone? How many years to fill those gaps? Bean counters you can always get but the ones that direct manufacture aren't so common.
 
1) http://gammon.com.au/blink  <-- tasking Arduino 1-2-3
2) http://gammon.com.au/serial <-- techniques howto
3) http://gammon.com.au/interrupts
Your sketch can sense ongoing process events in time.
Your sketch can make events to control it over time.

Robin2

What do you do when the people who manage an industry, the older ones with enough experience to do the jobs are enough of them gone? How many years to fill those gaps?
Does that mean that all those people should be super-isolated indefinitely with all their immediate support staff (cooks, cleaners etc) also super-isolated? How is the cost of that to be covered? (even if the people would be prepared to submit to it - I wouldn't be).

...R
Two or three hours spent thinking and reading documentation solves most programming problems.

GoForSmoke

Imperial College is running tests on a promising vaccine... before we by-chance run out of trained researchers.

This won't be the last pandemic. The ways we work have to change so we don't get caught napping again.

Watch the death percentages soar where hospitals get overwhelmed. How sick would you have to get before going there? It could be break an arm, get COVID.
 
1) http://gammon.com.au/blink  <-- tasking Arduino 1-2-3
2) http://gammon.com.au/serial <-- techniques howto
3) http://gammon.com.au/interrupts
Your sketch can sense ongoing process events in time.
Your sketch can make events to control it over time.

GoForSmoke

I saw the Tweet about why masks are no good. Because the wearer could get COVID off the mask!

It doesn't occur to a certain self-centered Juevenile Delinquent that wearing masks protects OTHER PEOPLE and slows the spread of the virus... not when he needs an excuse to not wear a mask for the look of it.

Go to the Rally and get Trump Fever. 
1) http://gammon.com.au/blink  <-- tasking Arduino 1-2-3
2) http://gammon.com.au/serial <-- techniques howto
3) http://gammon.com.au/interrupts
Your sketch can sense ongoing process events in time.
Your sketch can make events to control it over time.

Coding Badly

I saw the Tweet about why masks are no good. Because the wearer could get COVID off the mask!
A problem with a trivial solution.  Don't lick the outside of the mask.


ardly

South Korea went in very heavily with testing, contact tracing and isolating right from the start. As a result their deaths are in the low hundreds and they have so far avoided a lockdown.

If you look at simulations isolating infected people and their contacts dampens disease spread rapidly.

Unfortunately the US and UK made a comple botch of testing and tracing and both are paying the price.
It looked like the UK had implemented an effective lockdown but it now seems to be throwing that away.

"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored" - Aldous Huxley

ballscrewbob

P
South Korea went in very heavily with testing, contact tracing and isolating right from the start. As a result their deaths are in the low hundreds and they have so far avoided a lockdown.

If you look at simulations isolating infected people and their contacts dampens disease spread rapidly.

Unfortunately the US and UK made a comple botch of testing and tracing and both are paying the price.
It looked like the UK had implemented an effective lockdown but it now seems to be throwing that away.


Pretty much all those countries that had lock downs and then eased them a little too early are seeing second waves of some description
It may not be the answer you were looking for but its the one I am giving based on either experience, educated guess, google (who would have thunk it ! ) or the fact that you gave nothing to go with in the first place so I used my wonky crystal ball.

Robin2

South Korea went in very heavily with testing, contact tracing and isolating right from the start. As a result their deaths are in the low hundreds and they have so far avoided a lockdown.
To my mind that just means they have a huge population still available to be infected and those people will eventually be infected unless the restrictions remain for a very long time.

I would much prefer to take my chances with this disease and see life get back to normal.

...R
Two or three hours spent thinking and reading documentation solves most programming problems.

GoForSmoke

To my mind that just means they have a huge population still available to be infected and those people will eventually be infected unless the restrictions remain for a very long time.

I would much prefer to take my chances with this disease and see life get back to normal.

...R
You're only immortal as long as you survive. (Geddy Lee said that.)

Don't forget how many lives and crippling's a vaccine will save.

But hey applaud Florida for being a new spread-it vacation spot where people go to get loose and forget their worries.
You could go take your chances there if you can get a travel ban exemption, there have been many 1000's.
1) http://gammon.com.au/blink  <-- tasking Arduino 1-2-3
2) http://gammon.com.au/serial <-- techniques howto
3) http://gammon.com.au/interrupts
Your sketch can sense ongoing process events in time.
Your sketch can make events to control it over time.

Go Up