Arduino pro mini failing to upload, no errors

Hello,

I am using a Buspirate v3b in transparent UART with 115200 baudrate, etc as shown here: (link)
buspirate cable:

what I am doing:

CLK does appear to be resetting the arduino in time, and I have tried pressing the reset button myself to no avail. I have soldered a 15k resistor pulling up my RST pin, but to no effect.

No errors appear in the arduino IDE, cannot upload Blink sketch with Arduino pro mini 5V 16mhz option (matches board). Problem same across two different pro mini boards.

What bootloader is on the promini? Is it optiboot? So you select Uno as board type?

If not, you may need to change the serial port speed.

CrossRoads:
What bootloader is on the promini? Is it optiboot? So you select Uno as board type?...

A fine suggestion, Sparkfun seems silent on the matter in the device specs but Arduino Uno option appears to be ineffective as well.

Sparkfun:
This is a 5V Arduino running the 16MHz bootloader.

CrossRoads:
...If not, you may need to change the serial port speed.

I have tried using 57600 baud transmissions as well, does it matter how slow I go with the baud rate?

I am speaking with sparkfun tech support over email, perhaps I can get them to try and write blink to a pro mini with their piratebus.

additionally: this is what I see after uploading with verbose output on for both compliation and uploading... I don't see anything!