avrdude: programmer is not responding (Pro Mini)

I know you said the FTDI232 worked on 3v 8MHz Pro Mini's.

Would you try a new USB cable to the FTDI?

Maybe check your leads from the FTDI to the Pro Mini.

You only need one bad lead between TX, RX and DTR for it to fail.

Of course you should know immediately if the VCC or GND is Bad.