For a processor running at 16 MHz (like the one on your Arduino), 125K, 250K, 500K, 1M are "zero error" baud rates. That means using them is less likely to cause communications problems. I suggest using one from that list rather than 200K or 128K.
and shows how the Device Manager settings can be over-ridden?
I have yet to cross paths with an application that uses the Device Manager line settings. In other words, everything overrides the Device Manager settings.