I'm sure I could do this before, but

There's something else going on: uploading is not proceeding correctly. I loaded a trivial (1488 byte)s sketch. It verified. But 'Uploading' remained for a minute or two, and then the error report appeared, dominated by
avrdude: stk500_recv(): programmer is not responding

Same with Blink and other sketches.

Re-starting IDE didn't help. No clues in Device Manager.

Next steps probably:

  • change port
  • try different cable
  • try IDE 2
  • reboot Win10 PC.