Your baud rate is wrong, it needs to be 57600.
Please retry the serial upload from within the IDE. Use the Pro Mini 5V/16MHz board type and please post the entire avrdude exchange, beginning with the command line that invokes avrdude and all resulting lines until avrdude quits.
If it still tries to load at 19200, we'll need to look at your boards.txt and avrdude.conf files to figure out why it is wrong.
PS: I'll just mention that I discovered during testing that the board type and clock rate selected in the IDE do not matter. So long as the processor type matches and the baud rate is correct for the bootloader in the board, it should download. The Pro Mini type mentioned above uses 57600 as the baud rate.