Mega 2560 - Bootloader timeout & WinAVR Load timeout,... ??Reset?? ??wiring??

I hardly know where to start. After two days of trying approaches gleaned from internet searching I have yet to
find a solution: I have a Mega 2560 which I am trying to program by two methods.
1: arduino sketches (works fine), but can't burn boot loader.
2: Winavr (does not work fine - although early on it did download a few times)
The problem seems to be associated with reseting the mega 2560 in preparation for the bootloader
and down loading the code. I am using avrdude 5.11, have tried stk500v2, wiring, stk500v1,.... others
I have added the reset = 4; to these loaders. I have tried pushing the reset button while trying to load.
I have checked the Win7 driver for the usb/com port. I short I've been around the block on this problem.
ALWAYS I get the timeout error from avrdude.
My engineering intuition tells me Arduino has done something stupid, and it shows. AND I am happy to be stupid if
I am wrong.
Versions of this problem and similar issues are found all over the internet - but I have not found a complete explanation
with a solution. Is there one other than buying an ISP? thanks
-d