Mega 2560 - can't program - OS X, USB

Yeah, trying with a Pololu programmer:

$ avrdude -p m2560 -c avrisp2 -P /dev/tty.usbmodem00143251 -U flash:w:Arduino-COMBINED-dfu-usbserial-atmega16u2-Mega2560-Rev3.hex.txt

avrdude: stk500v2_command(): command failed
avrdude: initialization failed, rc=-1
         Double check connections and try again, or use -F to override
         this check.


avrdude done.  Thank you.

Board seems to be toast.