Selection of presence sensor

Hi guys.

For one of my university projects I need to detect the presence of a person in the shower. In order to do that what I have in mind is use a proximity sensor. If the target is in a distance range (let's say 20 to 50 cm) It will assume that the person is in the shower when the distance measure is no longer in this range then it will mean that the person left the shower. I need to detect all the time of the person in the shower (meaning when he/she gets in and then out). I have read a lot of info and forums to properly choose the type of sensor. However I still don't have a clear answer. About the Ultrasonic proximity sensors I know that they are cheap and more accurate by it can be affected by Temperature, humidity and some ambient noise, all of them which happen in a shower. The other option an Infrared one gets affected by lightning conditions and the surface of the target. The last option I checked is a PIR sensor I know it senses Temperature of the target, but I don't know if it will be affected by the running hot water and also is more expensive. In general, I don't know how the running hot water will affect the detection of the person in shower. Also,so again I don't know how this will work. Sorry for the huge amount of questions, I am a little bit confuse with all the factors to have in mind. I am hoping someone out there can help a lost newbie like me and give me a suggestion. Thanks a lot :)

The PIR sensor detects changes in the IR pattern. The HC-SR501 is less than $2. A better install may be a ceiling mount, like this