Holy craptastic. I see the Preferences has a checkbox for verbose 'upload'. Duh. Learned something new today. Now THAT is what I really needed. I can see what's going on for once:
What's more, the chip appears to have loaded and is running 'blink' successfully. Maybe the COM port was jammed up. I haven't rewired anything on my breadboard.
Sketch uses 1,116 bytes (3%) of program storage space. Maximum is 32,256 bytes.
Global variables use 11 bytes (0%) of dynamic memory, leaving 2,037 bytes for local variables. Maximum is 2,048 bytes.
C:\Program Files (x86)\Arduino/hardware/tools/avr/bin/avrdude -CC:\Program Files (x86)\Arduino/hardware/tools/avr/etc/avrdude.conf -v -v -v -v -patmega328p -carduino -PCOM9 -b115200 -D -Uflash:w:C:\Users\donb\AppData\Local\Temp\build1302336530084855925.tmp/Blink.cpp.hex:i
avrdude: Version 5.11, compiled on Sep 2 2011 at 19:38:36
Copyright (c) 2000-2005 Brian Dean, http://www.bdmicro.com/
Copyright (c) 2007-2009 Joerg Wunsch
System wide configuration file is "C:\Program Files (x86)\Arduino/hardware/tools/avr/etc/avrdude.conf"
Using Port : COM9
Using Programmer : arduino
Overriding Baud Rate : 115200
avrdude: Send: 0 [30] [20]
avrdude: Send: 0 [30] [20]
avrdude: Send: 0 [30] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
AVR Part : ATMEGA328P
Chip Erase delay : 9000 us
PAGEL : PD7
BS2 : PC2
RESET disposition : dedicated
RETRY pulse : SCK
serial program mode : yes
parallel program mode : yes
Timeout : 200
StabDelay : 100
CmdexeDelay : 25
SyncLoops : 32
ByteDelay : 0
PollIndex : 3
PollValue : 0x53
Memory Detail :
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
eeprom 65 20 4 0 no 1024 4 0 3600 3600 0xff 0xff
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
flash 65 6 128 0 yes 32768 128 256 4500 4500 0xff 0xff
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
lfuse 0 0 0 0 no 1 0 0 4500 4500 0x00 0x00
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
hfuse 0 0 0 0 no 1 0 0 4500 4500 0x00 0x00
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
efuse 0 0 0 0 no 1 0 0 4500 4500 0x00 0x00
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
lock 0 0 0 0 no 1 0 0 4500 4500 0x00 0x00
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
calibration 0 0 0 0 no 1 0 0 0 0 0x00 0x00
Block Poll Page Polled
Memory Type Mode Delay Size Indx Paged Size Size #Pages MinW MaxW ReadBack
signature 0 0 0 0 no 3 0 0 0 0 0x00 0x00
Programmer Type : Arduino
Description : Arduino
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [80] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [81] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [04]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [82] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [04]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [98] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
Hardware Version: 3
Firmware Version: 4.4
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [84] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [85] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [86] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [87] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [89] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [03]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
Vtarget : 0.3 V
Varef : 0.3 V
Oscillator : 28.800 kHz
SCK period : 3.3 us
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [81] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [04]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: A [41] . [82] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [04]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: B [42] . [86] . [00] . [00] . [01] . [01] . [01] . [01] . [03] . [ff] . [ff] . [ff] . [ff] . [00] . [80] . [04] . [00] . [00] . [00] . [80] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: E [45] . [05] . [04] . [d7] . [c2] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: P [50] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: AVR device initialized and ready to accept instructions
Reading | avrdude: Send: u [75] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14] . [1e] . [95] . [0f] . [10]
################################################## | 100% 0.02s
avrdude: Device signature = 0x1e950f
avrdude: Send: V [56] . [a0] . [03] . [fc] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [00]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: V [56] . [a0] . [03] . [fd] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [00]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: V [56] . [a0] . [03] . [fe] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [00]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: Send: V [56] . [a0] . [03] . [ff] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [00]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude: reading input file "C:\Users\donb\AppData\Local\Temp\build1302336530084855925.tmp/Blink.cpp.hex"
avrdude: writing flash (1116 bytes):
Writing | avrdude: Send: U [55] . [00] . [00] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
[omitted because the post was too long otherwise]
| 100% 0.41s
avrdude: 1116 bytes of flash written
avrdude: verifying flash memory against C:\Users\donb\AppData\Local\Temp\build1302336530084855925.tmp/Blink.cpp.hex:
avrdude: load data flash data from input file C:\Users\donb\AppData\Local\Temp\build1302336530084855925.tmp/Blink.cpp.hex:
avrdude: input file C:\Users\donb\AppData\Local\Temp\build1302336530084855925.tmp/Blink.cpp.hex contains 1116 bytes
avrdude: reading on-chip flash data:
[omitted because the post was too long otherwise]
| 100% 0.38s
avrdude: verifying ...
avrdude: 1116 bytes of flash verified
avrdude: Send: Q [51] [20]
avrdude: Recv: . [14]
avrdude: Recv: . [10]
avrdude done. Thank you.