There are several equations for external capacitor calculation, this explanation is the most convincing to me, which contains:
The crystal datasheet specifies 12,5pF as load capacitance. The crystal itself will be just a backup option, so on the PCB there are currently two unpopulated 0805 footprints which can be soldered (into a short) if needed.
The 12.5 pf load capacitance is the value that the manufacturer used to tune the crystal to the specified frequency. Using a different value can 'pull' the crystal to oscillate at a slightly different frequency.
Yes, this is why I tried to choose the needed value with caution.
Thanks! Stray capacitance is usually assumed to be 2-5 pF with short traces, which results in 20pF-15pF load capacitors based on the formula in #1. Also considering that the basic (cheap) C0G capacitors at the PCB assembler company have +-5% tolerance, I will go with this middle value.