Just for information, the dominant failure mode of a MosFET is all leads become shorted to each others.
You didn't say what thermistor you have, I'll assume a typical 10K NTC.
My first test of the read analog signal is:
- Is it within the expected resistance range (for the expected temperature)
- Has it changed within the last xxx readings.
- I like your test of 4 readings should show some effect of heat on or heat off.
- You should enable the WDT in you processor.
Just some thoughts.