During the export/compile process in the output window I see:
/home/user/.arduino15/packages/arduino/tools/arm-none-eabi-gcc/7-2017q4/bin/arm-none-eabi-size -A /tmp/arduino_build_735665/MultipleBlinks-Modified.ino.elf
I use that ELF file with the elf2uf2 tool that (for me) is in:
~/.arduino15/packages/arduino/tools/rp2040tools/1.0.2/elf2uf2
I also found out that the rp2040load tool (where the IDE fails) seems to work if sudo which is...
I haven't messed around with it to find out why.